Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Tuesday's Stock Briefs: AGEN, SIRI, INSM, ONTY, CSUH.ob

AGEN: Shares of Antigentics (AGEN) spiked to over two dollars during mid day trading on Tuesday, in part due to a rumor circulating around the Internet of a possible early approval for Oncophage. Specifics of the rumour are unclear, but since Oncophage is not currently under FDA review the speculation is probably regarding the European application for approval.

There is undoubtedly little truth to this rumour, in VFC's opinion, and the spike is most likely the result of mere manipulation more than anything else. Any news, or legitimate speculation, regarding additional approvals for Oncophage would cause a spike in the AGEN share price of more than 10%.

Continue accumulating under $2 and ignore the small, manipulative, spikes in price.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

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SIRI: Last Friday's ten cent drop at the close also proved to be nothing more than a head fake as the SIRI stock rebounded nicely to forty two cents on Monday.

The initial hype of the SiriusXM iPhone application launched the application to near the top of Apple's 'most popular' list. The 'app', which is downloaded on the iPhone for free, will bring in additional revenue to SiriusXM as existing customers upgrade to 'Premier' packages in order to use their service on the iPhone. Also, just having the application available at the Apple store gives SiriusXM a nice marketing and advertising edge.

With XM's 2009 debt no longer a pending burden on the stock price, due to the senior notes issued last week, I still predict a spike to over a dollar in the near future (few months time, at most).

I believe that SIRI is still a highly manipulated stock and when the big boys are ready for to move it, it'll move.

Disclosure: VFC is long SIRI.

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ONTY: Shares of Oncothyreon (ONTY) have approached four dollars again, although no news has been released of late to justify the spike.

I still like the Stimuvax story, although I will wait for the stock to drift back down to three dollars, or below, before I resume accumulation of the stock.

That being said, any additional positive news on Stimuvax, or other cancer vaccine candidates, could propel the stock northwards of five dollars on short notice. I don't forsee that happening anytime soon, but as awareness of cancer immunotherapy treatment grows and products such as Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge move closer to market, the whole cancer-vaccine 'sector' could see a boost.

As DNDN has already proven twice, a boost in this sector is pretty significant.

Disclosure: VFC is long ONTY.

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INSM: Shares of Insmed (INSM), freshly cut in half after disappointing IPLEX MMD Phase II results, have again dropped below the dollar mark. IPLEX is far from a finished drug and a sub $1 price is a good time to buy as the swing/day/momentum traders all move out of the stock. IPLEX has not even been declared completly dead for the treatment of MMD.

While my expected timeframe for seeing signficant returns on the stock has moved further down the road, sub $1 is a great price to make an investment in the future of IPLEX, an already approved FDA drug.

There has been recent speculation about the timing of the CEO leaving the company and the subsequent disappointing MMD results, but controversy such as that give the small investor a chance to get in on the cheap.

I wouldn't be surprised if INSM drifted into the sixty cent range again, but with cash on hand and an already approved FDA drug, Insmed still has a future.

Disclosure: VFC is long INSM.

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CSUH.ob: Shares of Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob) have been re-testing the 52-week high of twenty cents this week, and for those who do not already have a position in the stock, now may be the time to buy- before second quarter earnings are released, most likely in August.

The company should also launch the calorie-burning "energy shot" later this year.
With consumer awareness and distribution continuing to escalate, earnings could surprise, which would most likely lead to another significant pop in stock price.

Speculation before earnings could also lead to a rise in price, in my opinion, maybe to the twenty five cent level.

CSUH.ob is a speculative risk-reward play, so while I am positive on this stock, I don't suggest an investor put 'all their eggs in the basket' at twenty cents. There is a chance for a drop back into the mid-teens, or below if quarterly earnings don't meet expectations, so I suggest buying some now and then waiting to see what happens.

If the price drops, buy more. If it doesn't and earnings are solid, CSUH.ob will be a safer buy at that point than it is now at a speculative 52-week high.

Those who have been in since below ten cents, this is a non-issue; you're already sitting pretty good.

The Celsius product still has a lot of room to grow in both distribution and awareness and if the product takes off, so should the stock.

I'm still waiting for a major celebrity to jump on board.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.ob.

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