Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Tuesday's Briefs: CPST, CSUH, KERX, TTNP, AGEN

CPST: Shares of Capstone Turbine (CPST) traded up during early trading on Tuesday after a report issued by the US Government on July 9th announced that Capstone's low-emission microturbines are eligible for reimbursement from a $3 billion fund created through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Additionally, Capstone's renewable projects are eligible for a thirty percent grant, according to the press release issued on Tuesday.

Capstone's stock shot up to over a dollar last month after it was announced that a Capstone microturbine was successfully integrated into a Ford vehicle, offering insight into another hugely beneficial environmental use for the company's products.

As oil prices remain inflated, the demand for microturbines and other alternative energy sources will continue to grow- a definite benefit for Capstone Turbine as the company looks to demonstrate an ability to turn their products into a profitable business. That needs to happen soon in order to keep investors interested and the influx of government money, if the reimbursement grants do in fact come to fruition, can't hurt.

I've accumulated CPST for over a year now and will continue to do so as long as it trades for below a dollar. This is my 'green' (environmental) stock pick and I am holding it for what I consider to be long-term (two years or more).

In short, if the stock trades for below a dollar I consider it a BUY- with the caveat that I intend to HOLD it for the long term. I expect no significant immediate returns, but it could be a good pick as a long term growth stock.

Disclosure: VFC is long CPST.

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CSUH.ob: Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob) issued a press release on Monday, however the release, which announced a re-vamping of the company's website, was hardly the much anticipated news that investors have been anxiously awaiting.

After a double in stock price over recent weeks, speculation has it that the company is due to announce either a major distribution deal, most likely with 7-11, or a blow-away earnings report.

Celsius CEO Steve Haley has previously stated that he does not like to announce new distribution until the product is already on the shelves at the announced location(s). Since 7-11 is a huge chain it is safe to assume that it will take longer than usual for full distribution to be in effect and therefor delaying the 7-11 distribution announcement.

There is no doubt that the Celsius calorie burning energy drink is growing in popularity and awareness and that has contributed to the recent rise in stock price.

Earnings are less than a month away now and when Q2 results are announced, investors will have a much better idea to just how much the product is catching on.

If you are just building a position in this stock I say buy in now and wait for earnings. If they disappoint, then a much better buying opportunity will present itself, but if they surprise another pop in price could occur. Chances are the next significant pop will also be accompanied by some profit taking and a retracement in stock price, but this stock is speculative that it is hard to predict what will happen next. Especially with the prospect that a huge pop could occur with a celebrity endorsement.

Do your own DD, factor in your tolerance for risk and buy accordingly. Me, I'm happy with my position in this stock and I am holding long term.

Something is brewing, however, with the stock up another 20% on Tuesday morning.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH.

KERX: Keryx Biopharmaceuticals traded up to nearly a dollar on Tuesday morning on news that the company initiated a Phase I trial "to evaluate KRX-0401 (perifosine) as a single agent treatment for recurrent solid tumors in pediatric patients," according to an early morning press release.

As I've stated here before, I like KERX as a long term pick and today's press release undoubtedly offers more potential for the future. However, Phase I is very early on in the process towards FDA approval so investors should not feel the need to rush into this one.

Slowly accumulate this stock, but keep in mind that a possible payday from KERX is a lot further off than say, AGEN or ONTY. If things start shaping up for the company's mid to late stage drugs, then pick up the pace of accumulation.

VFC's take: BUY and HOLD.

Disclosure: VFC is long KERX.

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TTNP: Shares of Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP) continue to trade for just above a buck on anemic volume.

VFC's take on the recent trading: Being a pink sheet stock, I'm not surprised to see a signficant drop off in volume after a 3000% gain as the swing/momentum/day traders leave and look for the next big hit. Pink sheets are often played like that and TTNP is no exception.

That being said, someone is trying to keep the stock above a dollar- whether that someone is Titan's management looking to meet requirements for a re-listing on a major exchange or someone involved in negotiations for a partnership/buyout, I don't know. Whoever it is, that someone is doing a very good job at both keeping the stock at $1 while also keeping the stock below the radar (no significant spikes or dips). It could also just be an extraordinary coincidence, so keep your eyes on the trading and your finger on the trigger, as they say, so you can sell into any signficant spikes. I expect news to be released by the end of summer that will clarify the current trading pattern.

Vanda has indicated that Fanapt will be in pharmacies this year, meaning a revenue stream will commence for Titan (at no cost to the company), but it is worth noting that news of a patent extension for either Fanapt or Probuphine will add singificant value to the company, and hence it's stock.

I'm no longer buying TTNP, only because I have reached my satisfaction level with amount of shares I now hold, but I will be anxiously awaiting any updates from the company.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.

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AGEN: Shares of Antigenics (AGEN) quickly rebounded from the $1.50 level and are back to trading for over $1.80.

The drop to the mid $1 level was, in my opinion, an attempt to 'shake out the weak hands' (take shares from those who sell at the first sign of trouble) and to allow shorts to cover.

There's too much news pending regarding Oncophage and QS-21 to keep AGEN off the radar for too long and I still consider it a great buy for below two dollars.

Keep in mind that nothing is a sure thing in the market, especially when dealing with drug-approval agencies, but, with Oncophage already approved in Russia, the prospects of Antigenics look pretty good.

I'm still a buyer at below two dollars.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

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