Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Readers Respond: GNBT

GNBT: A comment from Myles regarding Generex:

In your September 21st commentary you said phase III results for GNBT should be out at the end of this year or beginning of next year. Will this be preliminary results because the government website says Primary Completion date is July 2010. Here is the link:


This is also a good research link to bookmark for other company studies, just cut off the link after the .gov suffix before you save it.

What other websites would you suggest for people to bookmark as their "investing tool box"? Perhaps appreciative readers can offer their most useful ones too as "pay back". It's us versus the pros. Our money is just as green!



Another comment regarding GNBT:

Do you think it time to accumulate some more GNBT now that it took a bit of a dip from the $0.75 area? When do you think the pre Phase III news run up will begin? If it runs to over a dollar as you suggest, that would be a fairly decent short term return.
Cavaet emptor.

VFC's Take: Thanks for pointing that out, Myles, there should be an 'interim' in there; it is interim results that I expect to see either later this year or Q1, 2009.

Additionally, this comment from the company regarding the current positive trend of the Phase III trial, "If the current positive trend is maintained, then a large
reduction of required enrollment will suffice for formal verification of the
non-inferiority hypothesis."
has me believing that the company could file for approval with the FDA by mid-to-late 2010 based on the results that they will have on hand before the completion of the trial. As always, that is purely my own speculation.

Also, thank you for posting the link to the clinical trials website - definitely worth a bookmark for any biotech investor.

As for my comments on DD and my sources for information, I touched on that subject in a post a while back, but I like your idea of having a noticeable link for small investors to post their sources for DD. If anyone wants to share some information sources, feel free to use the comments section at the bottom of that page for now.

I've gotten a few readers asking if I have taken advantage of the GNBT dip to below sixty cents, and I have. In previous posts I mentioned that sixty cents was my 'buy price' and I took advantage of Tuesday's drop and picked up a few shares at fifty five cents.

I'll probably sit back and wait a bit before I jump in any more - a further drop could be in store - but I think that between now and the end of the first quarter next year, as interim Phase III results come out (if they do), we could see a significant bump in stock price if those results are positive.

I also believe that pure speculation on the potential of Oral-Lyn or 'playing around' by the big boys can jump the stock to a dollar at any given moment, that's why I at least wanted in when the stock was trading for seventy five cents.

The big move up for GNBT, if one were to occur, will be in 2010 - in my opinion. I'm looking to form a nice base by then and that means that I'll be averaging down in the present time.

Disclosure: VFC is long GNBT.

Internet Florist

Just Because Baskets


  1. Here is my contribution for seven free websites I use:

    (For technical analysis)

    (Type in your stock symbol of interest at the top left along with checking off the "opinion" button.)

    (For technical analysis)

    (This is a good educational tool)



    Oh, and finally:

    Hope this helps!!!


    Gillmore Viltati

  2. VFC,
    What's your take on XMDC.PK?


  3. I would like to add some websites too:

    For government filings:

    For technical opinions:

    To check whether a company is beginning to increase staff (and for all you seeking employment too):
    For instance, it shows Dendreon has dozens of job openings so they must think there is a reason to hire; their drug will probably be approved.



  4. Hi VFC,

    I noticed that the biotech sector seems to be retracing downwards after its recent run. Recent press releases from several biotech companies have not garnered much response in terms of upward price movement (for eg. AGEN's glioma trial results and Peregrine's breast cancer trial results to name a few). I have not been investing in biotech stocks long enough to know if this is just an expected retracement and that the biotech sector will recover soon or that the bubble for small biotech companies has burst and won't recover for some time. Would appreciate your input.



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