Monday, November 2, 2009

Briefs: CSUH, TTNP

CSUH.ob: Third quarter results are pending for Celsius Holdings, and investors will be looking for a significant increase in sales and revenue growth to complement the recent growth in distribution. It's a given, at this point, that expenses will be up with the nationwide advertising campaign in full effect, but I firmly believe that the advertising blitz is a necessity to ensure the future growth of the company.

It's also expected, based on previous comments by Celsius CEO Steve Haley, that additional distribution announcements are pending for the fourth quarter of this year and even more will be announced in the first quarter of 2010.

I'm slowly changing my mindset of considering CSUH as simply a speculative play and starting to consider it as a long term growth pick. That's just my opinion, but I like the direction in which this company is heading and - as always - if a big celebrity were to jump on board, then things could really get interesting.

As for the pending results, any number right around $2 million in revenue is a great third quarter, in my opinion, as the company is still in the early stages of significant growth.

While I won't rule out a fairly significant end of year run in CSUH, as news and distribution is announced, i think that the big move will come in the first half of 2010. In the meantime, I'll add to my position on any dips back into the mid-thirty cent range; if we don't see those levels again then I'll just wait for the ride. If we were to drop lower than that - I'll be happy to add even more.

For now, I'll be looking forward to digesting the 3Q numbers when they are released.

Disclosure: VFC is long CSUH. Titan Pharmaceuticals was mentioned in a weekend article by the Washington Post that highlighted the CEO of Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Mihael Polymeropoulos, and Fanapt - Vanda's recently approved drug to treat schizophrenia of which Titan will reap in up to 10% in royalties.

While Novartis emerged as Vanda's partner to commercialize the product, it's long been my speculation that Titan will eventually be gobbled up by a larger company, and the following comment by Titan CEO Sunil Bhonsle in the Post article does nothing to stave off my speculation: "There tends to be a pattern where smaller companies do a lot of the innovation, then the larger companies acquire them at a certain point," he said.

I'm just waiting to see where that "certain point" is for Titan.

With the latest Probuphine trial paid for by an NIH grant and Fanapt royalites ready to start rolling in early next year, Titan's stock continues to remain in a prime position to spike, whether a buyout occurs or not.

I still suspect that buyout talks are in the works, but if Titan does go it alone, then I would expect a move to a prominent exchange to take place.

Disclosure: VFC is long TTNP.

Free Shipping Christmas

1 comment:

  1. What are your comments on GNBT's slide? Has the story or your feeling changed at all?



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