Thursday, December 16, 2010

CELH: An Update, Dead or Will it Bounce Back?

$1 Start Bid, No Reserve Auctions

It's been a couple of weeks since I last discussed Celsius Holdings, so I figured it's about time to see where we stand.  Volume and price have returned to a somewhat stable range after the large volume boost and swift decline in price that followed the disappointing results (to say the least) from the third quarter, at which time it became apparent that the company was not even aiming at the broad side of a barn with their 2010 fiscal estimates.

It's just about Hail Mary time for Celsius in terms of regaining even a shred of credibility after the failure to even approach the estimated numbers, and while the stock is trading for fifty cents - not a bad risk/reward level, in my opinion - I think that it'll be a little easier to attract speculative investors who see the possibilities of the product catching on in the health and fitness sector of the beverage market.

The company looked to be in just as dire straits when CSUH traded for 2.5 cents a couple of years ago and managed to pull out of that spin, so it might be worth banking on a turnaround like that again, although I wouldn't quite count on the three thousand percent gains being returned again if CELH does in fact pull it off.

Like I said, I see this as Hail Mary time, and even a bounce back quarter will do little to return credibility to the management team that missed the annual estimates by a margin big enough that you could move an aircraft carrier through it.

I still like the product and still like the possibilities of a bounce back, but there's reason to remain sceptical.  It's pretty convenient, if not suspicious, the timing of some of the events of the past 18 months, including an analyst upgrade (from Florida, conveniently enough) that played into a very significant price rise shortly before cyberspace was inundated by new group of Celsius 'get bash crew' guys that dedicated thousands of hours to creating fear, doubt and panic around the company and its stock.   

It's a whole new ballgame now for Celsius, no longer a potential breakout player in the beverage industry, but a company now just trying to hang on. 

Maybe things would be going a bit better if Pamela Anderson and Jenny McCarthy were marketing this thing and not Mario Lopez. 

Is it possible that Celsius can also be Saved by the Bell?

I know, I know, that was weak.

Disclosure:  Long CELH.

Celsius - Celsius Green Tea Peach Mango, 4 cans

Celsius - Celsius Green Tea Raspberry Acai, 4 cans

Celsius Calorie Burner, Green Tea Raspberry Acai, 12-Ounce Cans (Pack of 24)

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