Friday, March 25, 2011

Readers Respond: SIGA, How Long Do We Wait on BARDA?

"Readers Respond" is a forum where VFC interacts with the readers of VFC's Stock House.  Readers can leave comments on posted material at either of the blog sites, through Seeking Alpha or via email,  All stock opinions, tips and questions are welcomed, whether agreeable with VFC's opinions or not.  Thanks for the comments, because without interaction - this wouldn't be fun.


An email from J to my Seeking Alpha account

I have been following SIGA, and I too believe that they will win the contract. If you check out my instablog on the subject you will see why even if CMX001 makes it to phase-III clinical testing, it will never be considered as good as ST246

I am messaging you because I am wondering if you have any idea as to how long it generally takes BARDA to approve these contracts, or if there is a certain day the announcement is expected to be made. If you have any further insight on this topic, especially since the press release today, I would appreciate you sharing with me and opening this dialogue.

VFC's Take:  Thanks for the email.  I do believe that SIGA is going to end up with the contract and I think that the governments knows that SIGA is going to get the contract, but with all the up-and-downs of this story over the past year, everything had to be put together correctly and legally.

As for how long it takes BARDA to come to a decision on these things, that's an easy one: we never know.

Government (generally, any government) is the most futile and foot-dragging entity in the world, and government dealing with contracting is even worse, so it's always tough to say how long a contract award is going to take.

Even when the government knows ahead of time who is going to get the award, whether it be because the CEO of the awardee is a old-time crony of someone high up in government (Cheney and Halliburton come to mind) or whether it's because a company has the best product or service to offer (SIGA, in this case), Washington still needs to go through the painful process of feigning objectiveness.

Add to that the ongoing budget battles in Washington and you never even know if the money is going to become available to seal the deal.

Unfortunately, each scenario is different.  You have no certainties when dealing with the government, and Big Brother can ignore promises and deadlines all he wants and, guess what, there's nothing anyone can do about it.

Simply a waiting game.

Disclosure:  No position.

1 comment:

  1. Hi VFC Stock House -- though you've given a lot of good info about SIGA to your readers in the past, you interject an element of doubt incorrectly in your post here. You wrote: "Add to that the ongoing budget battles in Washington and you never even know if the money is going to become available to seal the deal."

    The money for the contract is not yearly money, dependent on the yearly budget; it's ten-year money, and has been allocated long ago. Would be grateful if you corrected that portion of your post.

    Thanks -- Ken (Disclosure: Long Siga)


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